#cognitive-bias

A wiki explainer distinguishing the inside view (forecasting from detailed knowledge of a specific process) from the outside view (forecasting from a reference class of similar past cases) — traces the concept to Kahneman and Tversky's "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts" and Thinking, Fast and Slow, and notes Eliezer Yudkowsky's "reference class tennis" critique of the outside view's limits.

A sketch illustration of how people judge the likelihood of events by how easily examples come to mind — leading to predictable errors in probability estimation, such as overrating shark attacks or underrating car accident risks.